Predictions

[GUYTU6J]

You may also make a prediction for eventual situation (in the limit of t→∞) and not care about time, which is more like an unproven conjecture.

As I am luck deficient to actually do still life syntheses, I will make a theoretical statement: for any n-cell still life where n is at least 9, there exists a glider synthesis at the cost of (n-5) gliders. Let's see how at the time of writing the reality deviates from that:

1. All 9-cell still lives except xs9_178426 and xs9_31248go have a 4-glider synthesis each.
2. All 10-cell still lives have a 5-glider synthesis each.
3. All 11-cell still lives except xs11_321eg8o have a 6-glider synthesis each.
4. All 12-cell still lives have a 7-glider synthesis each.
5. All 13-cell still lives have an 8-glider synthesis each.
6. All 14-cell still lives except xs14_dbgzw1qm have a 9-glider synthesis each.
7. All 15-cell still lives except 18 in this post have a 10-glider synthesis each.
8. All 16-cell still lives except 297 have an 11-glider synthesis each.
9. All 17-cell still lives except 1106 have a 12-glider synthesis each.
   ...

See, the hypothesis is doing quite well. Therefore, in my opinion these can be reasonbale targets for synthesis makers.

As time goes by, the statistics can be incrementally changed by doing individual syntheses, or dramatically changed if people like AGreason keeps running transfer.py for optimization.

[pzq_alex]

As I am luck deficient to actually do still life syntheses, I will make a theoretical statement: for any n-cell still life where n is at least 9, there exists a glider synthesis at the cost of (n-5) gliders.

you also need to say the SL must be synthesizable

[hotdogPi]

The list of single objects that can be synthesized with 4 gliders is pretty much complete. If we don't know of a 4-glider synthesis, it probably doesn't exist.

[HotWheels9232]

By 2021, we will have an elementary c/8 orthogonal spaceship.

Nope

[HotWheels9232]

By 2035, there will be a unsynthysizable spaceship and by 2050, Life will be proven Omniperiodic.
Edit 1:ljkiernan1 will discover a new period.

[dani]

at least one of the first oscillators of p19, p41 will be a honey farm hassler, and both will be discovered before 2024.

[Heav]

this prediction will not come to pass by the end of 2022.

[confocaloid]

.

[Haycat2009]

We will find a c/7k spaceship before a c/8o spaceship, and both will happen by 2035.

We find a c/9o spaceship by 2040

Runaway greenhouse effect will start by 2050, if you humans continue like this.

We find a c/8c spaceship by 2060

We find a 3c/10o spaceship by 2175 (If we survive until then)

[wildmyron]

at least one of the first oscillators of p19, p41 will be a honey farm hassler, and both will be discovered before 2024.

Wow! Both parts of this prediction turned out to be correct.

[Anivec]

1. All 11-cell still lives except xs11_321eg8o have a 6-glider synthesis each.
2. All 14-cell still lives except xs14_dbgzw1qm have a 9-glider synthesis each.

See, the hypothesis is doing quite well. Therefore, in my opinion these can be reasonbale targets for synthesis makers.

xs11_321eg8o actually costs 5 gliders now and not 6 and xs14_dbgzw1qm costs 8 gliders, 1 glider less than 9

[tommyaweosme]

- by 2064, every pattern will be discovered in conways game of life
- by 2067, every pattern in every oca will be discovered
- by march 2068, 90% of all cgol and oca fans will lose interest
- by august 2068, only 3 names are left in the cgol or oca community (tommyaweosme, d-engine, and conglasses)
- by january 2069, the lucky 3 are working on a brand new cgol
- by 2070, cgol 2 will release
- by 2123, cgol 2 will be proved omniperiodic
- by 2164, the cycle repeats (with slightly different names except for tommyaweosme)
- by august 7068, after 20 cycles, they are finally ready to end the cycle for good
- by 7070, the luckiest 3 (tommyaweosme, alpha-floatboat, and stable-door) make cgolu (cgol ultimate)
- by 7089, 500 times the total population of the first 20 cgols are the fanbase of cgolu
- by 7510, "in the year 2525" by zager and evans is rediscovered. cgolu community is split between 2nd millenium music and 7th millenium music
- by 7563, the split cgolu fans start world war 9, the first world war using >20 nuclear bombs
- by 7594, the human population rapidly decreased from 43 billion to 6 billion.
- by 7600, the remaining human population grow delusional that it is the year 2000
- by 7612, a delusional clone of tommyaweosme will be born
- by may 7624, the delusional clone of tommyaweosme realises they are the delusional clone
-
-

wait...

the paradox...

i shouldnt have told...

i should never have known...

im back! i was the one that discovered all of the patterns! i was the one behind it all! muahahaha! i was trying to warn you that i was going to do it, but you just wouldnt listen!

oh no!

oh nooooo!

and your precious "hidden lore tinley"? its gone. all thats left is the "hidden lore" label

i wont let this happen. (takes out phone and opens infinite craft. mixes january 16 and fire)

oh god! im burning! AHHHHHHHHHH!

im back! take this forget ray and shoot yourself (hands tommyaweosme forget ray)

(shoots myself with forget ray)

wait, what am i doing in the predictions thread?

i guess... i predict that there will be a glider synthesis of sir robin...

bye! :<b></b>D

[unname4798]

- by 2064, every pattern will be discovered in conways game of life
- by 2067, every pattern in every oca will be discovered
- by march 2068, 90% of all cgol and oca fans will lose interest
- by august 2068, only 3 names are left in the cgol or oca community (tommyaweosme, d-engine, and conglasses)
- by january 2069, the lucky 3 are working on a brand new cgol
- by 2070, cgol 2 will release
- by 2123, cgol 2 will be proved omniperiodic
- by 2164, the cycle repeats (with slightly different names)
- by august 7068, after 20 cycles, they are finally ready to end the cycle for good
- by 7070, the luckiest 3 (the_last_of_gliders6561, alpha-floatboat, and stable-door) make cgolu (cgol ultimate)
- by 7089, 500 times the total population of the first 20 cgols are the fanbase of cgolu
- by 7510, "in the year 2525" by zager and evans is rediscovered. cgolu community is split between 2nd millenium music and 7th millenium music
- by 7563, the split cgolu fans start world war 9, the first world war using >20 nuclear bombs
- by 7594, the human population rapidly decreased from 43 billion to 6 billion.
- by 7600, the remaining human population grow delusional that it is the year 2000
- by 7612, a delusional clone of tommyaweosme will be born
- by may 7624, the delusional clone of tommyaweosme realises they are the delusional clone
-
-

wait...

the paradox...

i shouldnt have told...

i should never have known...

im back! i was the one that discovered all of the patterns! i was the one behind it all! muahahaha! i was trying to warn you that i was going to do it, but you just wouldnt listen!

oh no!

oh nooooo!

and your precious "hidden lore tinley"? its gone. all thats left is the "hidden lore" label

i wont let this happen. (takes out phone and opens infinite craft. mixes january 16 and fire)

oh god! im burning! AHHHHHHHHHH!

im back! take this forget ray and shoot yourself (hands tommyaweosme forget ray)

(shoots myself with forget ray)

wait, what am i doing in the predictions thread?

i guess... i predict that there will be a glider synthesis of sir robin...

bye! :<b></b>D

Tommyaweosme quickly recovered from the Forget ray.
Conglasses will be actually Unname4798 (me)
By January 8000, nothing will be left to discover. The human population decreases (eventually) to 0. Everything will be gone. And everyone

RIP 1970-8000 CGOL and everything else

What's exactly happened?

I am gone

Let's time travel!
*time travels to 1970*

You saved me! Thanks!

EDIT I: I am stuck in the edit loop!!!!!!!??

toomyaweweosem mood: enablee
i have an vrey evil idea!!??

Putting tommy-awesome on the glider:

Code: Select all

x = 3, y = 9, rule = B3/S23
bo$3o$bo$bo$b2o2$bo$o$3o!

Removing it:

Code: Select all

x = 19, y = 26, rule = B3/S23
bo$2bo$3o3$4b2o$4b2o15$17bo$16bo$11bo4b3o$12bo$10b3o!

Code: Select all

#N I no longer exist!
.

Done!
Bye-bye! :D

[tommyaweosme]

unname lore confirm?

[hotcrystal0]

- by 2064, every pattern will be discovered in conways game of life

It is impossible to discover every pattern, because some still lives, oscillators, and spaceships are infinitely extensible.

[confocaloid]

- by 2064, every pattern will be discovered in conways game of life

It is impossible to discover every pattern, because some still lives, oscillators, and spaceships are infinitely extensible.

Arbitrarily extensible objects such as long^n snakes and barges do not create a problem with discoverability. When you discover that an object is arbitrarily extensible, you automatically discover all its extensions.

The real problem is that there are infinitely many possible ways to find or construct a pattern that would do something completely new, that no previously known pattern did. E.g. assemble a pattern that solves some mathematical problem. It's impossible to list all mathematical problems.

[b-engine]

By 2028, I'll make a catagolI know it's catalog, I just changed it to cataGOL for all p4-12 domino sparkers I find.

[iddi01]

Note to everyone: This thread has a duplicate! Any ideas on what to do?
To mods: please merge that thread with this one.

I have a strong prediction which i think have at least a 70% chance of being correct:
- One of FWKnightship's 3-state rules or some pattern in it will win OCA DOTY 2024.
edit: Okay, maybe i spoke too soon.

Weaker predictions (though much stronger than the many "joke predictions"):
- 3D, Hexagonal, triangular, multistate, and anisotropic rules will get more attention in the next few years.
- A new major circuitry rule will appear by 2026 (calculated by the average time between arrivals of major circuitry rules)
- A CA-viewing software natively supporting HRINT rules will appear by 2030.
- 90% of currently active users will be inactive by 2030, but a new bunch of active users will come. (same thing happened in 2024 with 2016.)
- By the end of 2024, one of the INT rules will have its thread reach 20 pages and get a main namespace LifeWiki article about it.

[WhiteHawk]

My prediction:

By the end of 2024, the output repeat time of a 2c/3 wire will go down below 700. Alas, by the time it gets down to 600, the Bronco design will start becoming obsolete.
By 2026, HoneyLife will be proven omniperiodic (p29 technology carryover is pretty bad since none of it operates under B8 and S8).

Before 2027, I will finally get back to exploring periods and will post my findings about Omniperiodicity in all rules with snarks. Maybe i'll even get a little help along the way.

EDIT:
By 2030, a new period of oscillator will appear naturally in C1 census on Catagolue
By 2035, an elementary ship of slope other than orthogonal, diagonal, or (2,1) which can be easily run in Catagolue will have been found

[pifricted]

Mine:

1.A camelship will find before 2026
2.I’ll find a hassler

[ababa11e]

ababa11e's predictions for 2024 in CGOL:
A new crawler spaceship speed will be made
One major member will quit
A much smaller computer will be made with current tech.

[Banananananan]

A typewriter would be made in sticky by 2030

[tommyaweosme]

a typewriter will be made in stickyboxes (or stickyR2) by 2027

[unname4798]

a typewriter will be made in stickyboxes (or stickyR2) by 2027

A typewriter from StickyBoxes will be ported to Sticky in 2028.

[WhiteHawk]

New predictions:

P67 glider loop will be obsolete as SKOP67 by 2026.
There will be a stable P89 oscillator which does not need herschel sparkers or glider loops for support by Dec 1, 2028
A new elementary speed will be found no later than Aug 3, 2032